[Dispatch] Fwd: Fire Weather heads up: Red Flag today/tonight and tomorrow

Tue Jan 29 12:46:45 EST 2013

Please see the latest update from Capt Denzer

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

From: "D. Randy Denzer" <randy_denzer at yahoo.com<mailto:randy_denzer at yahoo.com>>
To: "Denzer FWD" <randy at randydenzer.com<mailto:randy at randydenzer.com>>
Subject: Fire Weather heads up: Red Flag today/tonight and tomorrow

Willdand folks,
  Red Flag warning today/tonight/ and tomorrow. The model runs this morning are holding up last night’s forecast and actually increasing the wind speeds a bit. Notice that the rain chance probabilities are being brought down. I have attached a couple screen shots of this morning runs showing no measurable rain in our area.

  After the front passes this afternoon, we are going to dry out fast with stiff west / NW winds. While Fuels will be initially wet from last night’s moisture return, any starts later today need to have aggressive attacks (Dead grasses will dry out quick). Do not expect normal diurnal changes to slow down any working fires at sunset. The winds are showing to blow into and through the night. We will be even drier in the morning.
 Relief will come at sunset tomorrow night when the winds should lay down.
§  Today A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind 15 to 20 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
§  Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 45. West northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
§  Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 63. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
§  Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 33. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM
CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE
TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR DUE TO
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES....

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL SHOW POOR RECOVERY OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15
TO 25 MPH RANGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL THEN FALL INTO THE TEENS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THURSDAY WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

TXZ173-191-192-300430-
WILLIAMSON-HAYS-TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN
630 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...

                     TODAY        TONIGHT      WED

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       CLEAR
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           10           0
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        NONE         NONE
TEMP (24H TREND)      82 (+4)      42 (-28)     62
RH % (24H TREND)      24 (-34)     34 (-63)     20
20FTWND-AM(MPH)       S 18                      NW 16
20FTWND-PM(MPH)       SW 19        W 19         NW 16
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL)    3534                      5535
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 44                      NW 23
CWR                   20           0            0
LAL                   4            3            1
HAINES INDEX          3            4            4

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS
AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

Randy Denzer
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