[Dispatch] Fwd: Willdfire weather heads up

[Walter J. Groman]

Please see the weather updates from Capt. Denzer

Walter

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From: "D. Randy Denzer" <randy_denzer at yahoo.com<mailto:randy_denzer at yahoo.com>>
Date: February 28, 2013, 10:46:57 AM CST
To: "Walter  J. Groman" <WGroman at vvfd.net<mailto:WGroman at vvfd.net>>, David Coatney <dcoatney at round-rock.tx.us<mailto:dcoatney at round-rock.tx.us>>, "Walter  J. Groman" <WGroman at vvfd.net<mailto:WGroman at vvfd.net>>, <jdavidson at roundrocktexas.gov<mailto:jdavidson at roundrocktexas.gov>>, Jim Linardos <JLinardos at ltfr.org<mailto:JLinardos at ltfr.org>>, "James Mallinger" <James.Mallinger at cedarparktx.us<mailto:James.Mallinger at cedarparktx.us>>, Casey Ping <Casey.Ping at co.travis.tx.us<mailto:Casey.Ping at co.travis.tx.us>>, Preston Doege <pdoege at tchazmat.org<mailto:pdoege at tchazmat.org>>, <rhartigan at oakhillfire.org<mailto:rhartigan at oakhillfire.org>>
Subject: Willdfire weather heads up

Wildland Folks,
  It’s already dry and it’s going to get dryer over the next 4 days. Today will be just below Red Flag parameters in the mid-afternoon. We should begin to see ignitions in grasses earlier in the day with each passing day as the RHs continue to drop. Winds are going to be close to red flag levels this afternoon, Saturday, and Sunday. Expect Red Flag conditions on Monday.

This Saturday through Monday is beginning to look like a serious wildfire setup.

Ghosting should be considered today to see if the PIGs (Probability of Ignitions) increase in the early afternoon with the increasing wind speeds and lower RHs.

SPC
Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 62. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. North northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night Clear, with a low around 36. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 68. South wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. South wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.



Fire Weather

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY NORTHERLY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU EACH AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WILLIAMSON-HAYS-TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN
639 AM CST THU FEB 28 2013

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE
TEMP (24H TREND)      61           32 (-3)      61
RH % (24H TREND)      19 (0)       68 (-6)      21
20FTWND-AM(MPH)       N 12                      NW  8
20FTWND-PM(MPH)       N 13         N 10         NW 12
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL)    4148                      5886
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   N 15                      N  8
CWR                   0            0            0
LAL                   1            1            1
HAINES INDEX          4            4            5






Randy Denzer


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